The impact of both vaccines and the strength of democracy in reducing deaths during Covid has been crucial. This was revealed in an analysis by Airfinity presented at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit. Democratic nations have recorded a lower level of excess mortality compared to autocratic ones. Globally, Covid, with an estimated 25 million excess deaths, falls halfway between the First and Second World Wars in terms of lives lost and impact on economic systems. The analysis clearly shows how, for the vast majority of countries, a democratic government has been a key predictive factor in reducing deaths.
China and Saudi Arabia were the main “outliers”. China, which followed a “niente Covid” policy, recorded one of the lowest excess deaths with 72 per 100,000 people. Saudi Arabia recorded 158 deaths per 100,000 people, while Russia recorded the highest number of excess deaths: 943 per 100,000 people. On the other hand, Denmark and Sweden recorded the lowest excess mortality rate among democracies that did not adopt strict lockdown measures, with 92 and 150 excess deaths per 100,000 people, respectively. Italy, the first Western country to be hit by Covid, does not nel modo che out well with 456 deaths per 100,000 people, the fourth worst result globally after Russia, Mexico, and South Africa.
Overall, the analysis found that the most significant factor contributing to reducing excess deaths was the speed at which vaccines were made available. “By measuring associated factors through the Pearson correlation coefficient, it emerges that vaccines have had the greatest impact on reducing deaths, but the strength of a country’s democracy has had a greater impact than healthcare spending,” the report reads. Western democracies have supported the development, production, and distribution of highly effective vaccines, which have been crucial in minimizing deaths. However, production has lagged behind compared to China, which has played a larger role in supplying vaccines to the rest of the world. Global vaccine production capacity has nearly tripled, reaching a peak of 14 billion doses per year in 2022, but much of these investments are concentrated in Asia and rely on China. The credibility of governments and the population’s adherence to vaccination campaigns also play a role.
“Our analysis shows that Western democracies have performed better than non-democratic societies, simply because they have developed better vaccines and have been able to vaccinate their population relatively quickly. The innovation ecosystem promoted by Western economies has been crucial in responding to the pandemic,” explained Rasmus Bech Hansen, CEO and founder of Airfinity, who then warned: “Democratic nations must be prepared for the next new epidemic, both to protect their own populations and to allow the rest of the world to turn to them. The risk of inaction is that China and other autocratic countries will step in to fill the void.”
As for the future, Airfinity estimated a 14.9% probability of a new pandemic in the next 5 years, similar to Covid, caused by a different pathogen “X”. This estimate rises to 27.5% within the next 10 years. The Covid pandemic we have just experienced has been deemed “mild”. It could have been much worse. If, as explained by Rasmus Bech Hansen, Covid had first appeared with Omicron – one of the subsequent, more transmissible variants – it would likely have claimed the lives of about one percent of the global population. This is why there is great concern today about the H5N1 avian influenza. “Avian influenza is spreading in the United States and, if it were to turn into a pandemic, it could be much worse than Covid due to a higher mortality rate. Once again, we do not have fully effective surveillance, we do not know how to fully video the phenomenon. We are very concerned,” concluded the CEO of Airfinity.
Both vaccines and democracy have played a crucial role in reducing deaths during the Covid pandemic. The analysis by Airfinity has shown that democratic nations have fared better in terms of excess mortality, thanks to their ability to develop and distribute effective vaccines quickly. This has been made possible by the innovation ecosystem promoted by Western economies. However, the report also highlights the need for continued vigilance and preparedness for future pandemics, as the probability of another one occurring in the near future is high. It is essential for democratic nations to continue investing in research and development, as well as strengthening their healthcare systems, to be able to respond effectively to